Week 44 brought no loud headlines, but it did bring fresh numbers that show clearly where we stand at the end of October. Cumulative arrivals to Thailand by 17 October reached 24.42 million foreign visitors — 4.12% fewer than a year ago. The weekly flow barely changed, but its mix shifted: long-haul markets grew by double digits, Chinese arrivals dipped, and the pace needed to reach the 33-million-visitor goal for the year is now about one and a half times the current one. Meanwhile the market awaits the Bank of Thailand meeting on 28 October, and the Phuket property survey figures we analysed in September remain relevant — they are worth rereading in light of the new data.
The format is the same: numbers of the week, analysis, interpretation traps, a mini-case and a takeaway for the buyer. The previous issue is the week 43 digest, where we counted arrivals to 10 October and the Golden Week aftermath. External data is collected in the “Sources” block under the article. Where a figure is our own calculation from published data, we say so; forecasts are called forecasts. The hub for all digests is Thailand real estate news.
Contents
- Arrivals to 17 October: 24.42M and −4.12%
- The week of 11–17 October: long-haul vs short-haul
- The week’s five largest markets
- The maths of the 33M target: now 114K a day
- Bank of Thailand: 1% rate and the 28 October meeting
- The baht: what is known and what is not
- Phuket property: the AREA figures in context
- What it means for rentals and yield
- Traps of the week
- Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
1. Arrivals to 17 October: 24.42M and −4.12%
According to figures published by Nation Thailand on 19 October, between 1 January and 17 October 2026 Thailand received 24,423,680 foreign tourists. That is 4.12% fewer than in the same period of 2025. Revenue from foreign visitors over the period is about 1.19 trillion baht (1,189.555 billion).
Compared with last week:
| Indicator | To 10 October (wk 43) | To 17 October (wk 44) |
|---|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals | about 23.94M | 24,423,680 |
| Change vs 2025 | −4.04% | −4.12% |
| Revenue year to date | about 1.165 trillion baht | about 1.19 trillion baht |
First observation: the gap to last year widened by another 0.08 percentage points in a week, from −4.04% to −4.12%. The trend is not accelerating sharply, but it is not turning either. Second: the difference between cumulative figures (about 0.48 million) is of the same order as the ministry’s weekly report — 487,410 arrivals; small discrepancies come from rounding and the revisions the ministry makes after the fact.
What it means for an investor. Nationwide arrivals are a backdrop for the Phuket rental market, not its direct metric: the island gets its share via the airport, charters and seasonality. We covered this distinction in the piece on Phuket tourism statistics. Use national numbers as a sentiment indicator, not as a calculation of occupancy for a specific unit.
2. The week of 11–17 October: long-haul vs short-haul
In the week of 11–17 October, 487,410 foreign visitors arrived — 4,035 (0.83%) more than the week before, or about 69,630 a day. The main point of the report is the different behaviour of two segments:
| Segment | Arrivals in the week | Change vs previous week |
|---|---|---|
| Long-haul | 178,479 | +10.55% |
| Short-haul | 308,931 | −4.04% |
| Total | 487,410 | +0.83% |
Why this matters for Phuket. Long-haul means Europeans, Americans and part of the Russian and Middle Eastern guests — the segment that stays longer, books villas and aparthotels and forms the high season on the west coast. A 10.55% rise in one week is a sign that the season is picking up, but one week is not a trend: we have seen holiday spikes revert to normal within a week or two. According to Nation Thailand, the Minister of Tourism and Sports expects arrivals to rise in the week of 18–24 October as well. That is the minister’s expectation, not data; we will check it in the next issue.
Short-haul (neighbouring Asian markets) slipped 4.04%. Here come the factors we wrote about earlier: the revised visa-exemption regime (60 countries and up to 30 days from 15 September, per Nation Thailand) and the sensitivity of neighbouring markets to the baht. TAT has named these factors; we cannot break the weekly dynamics down by cause, so we leave them as hypotheses.
3. The week’s five largest markets
The structure of the week by largest markets:
| Market | Arrivals 11–17 October | vs previous week | Cumulative since 1 January |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 65,270 | −16.62% | 4,143,403 |
| Malaysia | 62,093 | +7.65% | 3,101,918 |
| India | 40,721 | −5.82% | 1,835,444 |
| Russia | 27,888 | +8.29% | 1,334,856 |
| United States | 18,084 | +8.18% | — |
| South Korea | — | — | 895,659 |
The table is assembled from a single report: weekly data covers the week’s top five markets (which include the US), cumulative data covers the top five year to date (which include South Korea), hence the dashes in a couple of cells.
What stands out. China remains the first market by cumulative numbers, but its weekly flow fell 16.62% — a continuation of the cooling after the Golden Week peak we described in the previous issue. Russia added 8.29% and has accumulated 1,334,856 visits — about 5.5% of total arrivals. The US is up 8.18% — a small base, but the direction matches the long-haul growth. For Phuket, where a considerable share of buyers and tenants comes from Russia, the CIS and Europe, long-haul is the main indicator.
A limitation: this is national entry statistics, not Phuket’s. The ministry does not give a breakdown of guests by airport or island in this report.
4. The maths of the 33M target: now 114K a day
According to Nation Thailand on 14 October, TAT is aiming for about 33 million foreign visitors in 2026. Let us recalculate from the latest available point:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals to 17 October | 24,423,680 |
| TAT target | about 33,000,000 |
| Still to reach | about 8,576,000 |
| Days from 18 October to 31 December | 75 |
| Required average flow | about 114K a day |
| Average flow 1 January – 17 October (290 days) | about 84K a day |
| Latest week’s flow | about 69.6K a day |
A week earlier the required pace was about 110K a day; now it has risen to 114K because the latest week delivered a flow below what was needed. The required average is about 36% above the year’s average and 1.6 times the weekly figure. That is not a verdict: November and December are the strongest months of the year, and the flow in them is historically above the annual average. But neither is it something to put in a base case without caveats.
A methodological warning: the calculation assumes an even flow and a rounded target, which reality does not provide. If TAT revises or rephrases the target (for example, “no lower than 2025”), the arithmetic changes. We are not forecasting the year-end result, only showing what pace would be required.
5. Bank of Thailand: 1% rate and the 28 October meeting
For real estate investors, the cost of money matters as much as tourism statistics. The Bank of Thailand policy rate is 1.00%. At the 24 June meeting the Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously (7–0) to hold it, and the Bank’s projections are:
| Indicator | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| Headline inflation | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Core inflation | 1.5% | 1.4% |
In the press release the Bank noted that growth is stronger than expected but remains low and uneven, and that the impact of the Middle East conflict on manufacturing and tourism was less severe than previously assessed. The next meeting on the calendar is on 28 October, a Wednesday this week. At the time of publication there is no decision and we will not guess: by financial press headlines this week (notably Bloomberg on 14 October), the tone is that the rate stays low, with a possible rise in the longer term; we could not read the text of those pieces, so we rely only on the headline and on the primary source — the Bank’s June release.
What it means for a buyer. Foreigners in Phuket mostly buy with their own funds: mortgages for non-residents are limited, as we explained in the analysis of mortgages for foreigners. So the rate affects them indirectly — through the baht, the cost of money for local buyers and general market sentiment. A low rate supports demand among Thai buyers; a rise, if it happens, could cool the secondary market. This is reasoning, not a forecast.
6. The baht: what is known and what is not
The exchange rate is the most underrated cost item for a foreign buyer. All catalogue prices are tied to the baht, while the dollar figures on cards are a conversion at the price-list date. In its June release the Bank of Thailand said the baht had weakened against the dollar following a shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. Since then TAT has spoken of the opposite — a “strong baht” as a factor making trips more expensive for neighbouring markets. The two statements do not necessarily contradict each other: the rate moves, and assessments depend on the date.
Analyst forecasts for the baht now diverge: one Bloomberg headline from 25 October speaks of a possible baht rebound on inflows into bonds, other analysts are cautious. We have not verified the figures of these forecasts against primary sources and will not quote them. The practical conclusion is simple: do not try to guess the rate — lock it in for the transaction. If you have a payment schedule in baht (as in off-plan instalments), currency risk grows with the term. How to document the transfer properly so you do not run into problems at the land office and on resale is in the article on the FET form.
7. Phuket property: the AREA figures in context
This is not news of the week — the survey by the Thai Real Estate Research and Valuation Center at AREA was published in September (Nation Thailand, 12 September), and we analysed it earlier. But against the backdrop of fresh arrivals it is worth rereading. The main data:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Units on the market (residential and accommodation) | 90,597 |
| Total value | 705.055 billion baht |
| Projects | 806 (Thalang 411, Mueang Phuket 281, Kathu 84) |
| Sold | 76,582 units (about 85%) |
| Average monthly sales pace | about 5.2% of available units |
| New units in 2026 | 13,779 worth 176.538 billion baht |
| Yield estimate for resort condos and villas (Cherng Talay, Bang Tao) | about 6–8% a year |
Three takeaways. First, the market remains deep: 85% of units are sold, and with no new launches the remainder would sell out in about 19.2 months — this is AREA’s calculation, not a price forecast. Second, city condos sell fastest (about 8.1% a month), resort ones slower (about 4.9%). Third, AREA’s yield estimate of 6–8% is below the target guideline of our programme (~8–10% net in the rental pool). These are different methodologies and different products: an independent estimate by district and category versus the target of a specific management programme. We do not claim one “refutes” the other, but an honest investor should keep both numbers in mind and ask for actual pool reports.
8. What it means for rentals and yield
Let us tie the week’s numbers to the rental model.
- Long-haul is growing. It is the key segment for the high season in Layan and Bang Tao. But a week is not a season; check against actual occupancy in rental seasonality.
- Overall flow is 4.12% below last year. For a rental pool this means a conservative approach: do not build record occupancy into the model. The guideline of ~8–10% net a year (60% of net pool profit to the owner, 40% to the management company) is a target, with a payback of about 12 years.
- The 1% rate and the exchange rate. They affect local demand and your currency conversion, but do not change the structure of the pool. How management programmes work is in the review of rental programmes.
- Recalculating your own yield. How to compute net yield after CAM, sinking fund and taxes is in the article how to calculate ROI in Phuket; for a quick estimate there is the yield calculator.
For comparing projects: in Layan Verde entry is currently from $235,995 with handover in December 2028 and an instalment plan during construction; in Layan Green Park the completed Phase 1 is resales only with full payment (studios from $142,602), while Phase 2 studios are sold by the developer from $224,043. More in the comparison Layan Verde vs Layan Green Park. The area is Layan, and next door Bang Tao.
9. Traps of the week
- One week is not a trend. +10.55% in long-haul and +0.83% in total flow can revert next week; do not build conclusions on them.
- National statistics are not Phuket. The ministry report counts entries into the country. It does not show the flow into the island’s airport or the occupancy of your units.
- Cumulative figures are revised. The difference between reports is our calculation and may diverge from the official weekly value.
- “The 33M goal” is a goal, not a forecast. The required pace of 114K a day is 1.6 times the current one. If the final figure comes out lower, that will not be a “failure of the property market” — but it should not be assumed as a base either.
- A headline instead of the text. We mention press we could not open in full only as a headline. The 28 October rate decision will be in the next issue, not earlier.
- Yield methodologies differ. 6–8% (AREA) and ~8–10% (programme) cannot be placed in one row without caveats.
- Instalments in baht. With a payment schedule in baht, the dollar yield depends on the exchange rate on each payment date.
- Prices change. Check prices and availability on the transaction date: the tokens in the text insert current values from the catalogue, but the contract fixes the price on the reservation date.
10. Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
Mini-case (an illustration, not a real client). An investor is looking at Layan Verde and postpones the decision “until the arrivals picture is clear”. They look at the week 44 issue: flow −4.12%, the 33M goal requires 114K a day. What follows for the decision?
- The project is due for handover in December 2028. The 2026 arrivals are not the yield horizon; the 2029–2030 seasons will be determined by supply, flights and the exchange rate, not by October statistics.
- The payment scheme fixes the risk. A reservation of 200,000 THB, then 35% and 5 payments of 13% every 6 months (or 50% and 5 payments of 10%). Delaying the decision changes the price: per the catalogue, studio prices rose from $224,776 to $235,995 over recent months.
- Diversification instead of guessing. Some investors combine a completed resale in Layan Green Park (pool income from the first season, full payment) with Layan Verde under construction (capital growth; the developer’s forecast is not a guarantee). It is the same logic as in the Phase 1 case and in the analysis of off-plan vs ready.
This week’s takeaway is short: the market is not breaking, but it is not accelerating either. Arrivals lag by 4.12%, long-haul is reviving, the Bank of Thailand holds at 1%, and the 28 October meeting will settle the rate question. For a buyer that is a reason to count conservatively, lock in the exchange rate and not pay for expectations.
We will select a project for your budget and horizon: I will send the current price list, actual rental pool reports and a net yield calculation. The partner commission is at market rate, with terms discussed at a meeting. Leave a request or learn more about the agency.
This material is for information only and is not investment advice or a public offer. Tourism statistics are per Nation Thailand reports of 14 and 19 October 2026, the rate decision is per the Bank of Thailand release of 24 June 2026; calculations are marked as ours. Yield figures are the management programme’s target guidelines, not a guarantee.
