Week 45 opens with the October tally. Cumulative foreign arrivals to Thailand reached 24.93 million by 24 October — 4.43% below a year earlier, and the gap widened over the week from 4.12% to 4.43%. Inside the weekly figures, though, something shifted in Phuket’s favour: long-haul visitors — Europeans, Russians, Americans, Indians — grew 12.03%, while Chinese arrivals fell 24.17%. Meanwhile, on 28 October the Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 1.00% and stated that it expects foreign tourist numbers to decline because of costly oil. And the 33 million target for the year now needs about 119,000 visitors a day — 1.66 times last week’s pace.
The format is unchanged: the week’s numbers, analysis, interpretation traps, a mini-case and a takeaway for buyers. The previous issue was the week 44 digest, where we counted arrivals to 17 October and waited for the Bank of Thailand meeting. External data is collected in the “Sources” block below the article. Where a number is our own calculation from published data, we say so; forecasts are called forecasts. The hub for all digests is Thailand real estate news.
Contents
- Arrivals to 24 October: 24.93M and −4.43%
- The week of 18–24 October: long-haul grows again
- The week’s five largest markets
- The 33M target maths: now 119K a day
- Bank of Thailand on 28 October: 1% and new forecasts
- Baht and oil: two opposite claims
- What TAT is doing for high season
- What this means for rentals and yield
- Traps of the week
- Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
1. Arrivals to 24 October: 24.93M and −4.43%
According to figures Khaosod English reported on 27 October, Thailand received 24,925,645 foreign tourists between 1 January and 24 October 2026. That is 4.43% fewer than in the same period of 2025. Foreign tourism revenue for the period was about 1.21 trillion baht.
Compared with the two previous issues:
| Indicator | To 10 Oct (wk 43) | To 17 Oct (wk 44) | To 24 Oct (wk 45) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals | about 23.94M | 24,423,680 | 24,925,645 |
| Change vs 2025 | −4.04% | −4.12% | −4.43% |
| Revenue year to date | about 1.165 trn baht | about 1.19 trn baht | about 1.21 trn baht |
First observation: the shortfall against last year has widened for a third week running — from −4.04% to −4.12% and now −4.43%. The gap grew 0.31 percentage points in one week, the biggest step in recent issues. By our calculation on rounded data, the difference from last year at 24 October is about 1.16 million arrivals (24.93 million at −4.43% implies about 26.08 million a year earlier). Second: at the end of September the country had counted 23.2 million visitors and −3.8% (Nation Thailand), so the shortfall widened during October too, if moderately.
What this means for an investor. National arrivals are a backdrop for Phuket’s rental market, not a direct metric: the island gets its share through its airport, charters and seasonality. That distinction is covered in our piece on Phuket tourism statistics. Use national figures as a sentiment indicator, not as a way to calculate occupancy for a specific unit.
2. The week of 18–24 October: long-haul grows again
During 18–24 October, 501,965 foreign visitors arrived — 14,555 (2.99%) more than the week before, or about 71,709 a day. The week’s structure:
| Segment | Arrivals in the week | Change vs previous week |
|---|---|---|
| Long-haul | 199,954 | +12.03% |
| Short-haul | 302,011 | −2.24% |
| Total | 501,965 | +2.99% |
The main point is a second consecutive rise in long-haul: a week earlier it was +10.55% (178,479 arrivals), now +12.03% and almost 200,000. This is the most important segment for Phuket: Europeans, Americans, Russians and guests from India stay longer, book apart-hotels and villas and build the high season on the west coast. Two weeks running is no longer a random spike, but still not a trend: seasonal growth at the end of October is expected, and it should be compared with last year, not with the previous week.
Short-haul slipped another 2.24%. The reasons TAT and the press cite are the revised visa-exemption scheme (60 countries and up to 30 days from 15 September, instead of 93 countries and 60 days) and a strong baht that makes trips costlier for neighbouring markets. We cannot split the weekly movement by cause, so we leave them as explanations rather than proven factors.
3. The week’s five largest markets
Structure of the week of 18–24 October by largest markets, with cumulative figures:
| Market | Arrivals 18–24 Oct | vs previous week | Cumulative since 1 Jan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 62,724 | +1.0% (our calculation) | 3.16M |
| China | 49,494 | −24.17% | 4.19M |
| India | 48,089 | +18.09% | 1.88M |
| Russia | 34,986 | +25.45% | 1.37M |
| United States | 20,167 | +11.52% | — |
| South Korea | — | — | 912,597 |
The table is assembled from one report: weekly data cover the week’s top five markets (which include the US), cumulative data cover the top five since January (which include South Korea), hence the dashes in a few cells. Malaysia’s growth is our own calculation from last week’s 62,093 arrivals.
What stands out. China remains the first market by cumulative arrivals (4.19 million), but its weekly flow fell by a quarter and this week trailed Malaysia. Russia added 25.45% and has accumulated 1.37 million arrivals — about 5.5% of the total. India grew 18.09%; TAT is running Diwali festivals aimed at this market, but we do not claim a causal link. For Phuket, where a significant share of buyers and renters comes from Russia, the CIS, Europe and India, these markets shape high-season occupancy — we do not measure Chinese flow for the island separately, as the report has no breakdown of Phuket guests.
The limitation is the same: this is national entry statistics, not Phuket’s. The report does not break arrivals down by airport or island.
4. The 33M target maths: now 119K a day
TAT governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool cited a target of about 33 million foreign visitors in 2026; the minimum goal is to match the 32.97 million of 2025, “provided there are no events or factors beyond our control” (Nation Thailand). Recalculating from the latest data point:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals to 24 October | 24,925,645 |
| TAT target | about 33,000,000 |
| Still needed | about 8,074,000 |
| Days from 25 October to 31 December | 68 |
| Required average flow | about 119K a day |
| Average flow 1 Jan–24 Oct (297 days) | about 84K a day |
| Last week’s flow | about 71.7K a day |
A week ago the required pace was about 114K a day; it has now risen to 119K because even the best week (71.7K a day) stayed far below the required level. The required average is about 41% above the year-to-date average and 1.66 times last week’s. This is not a verdict: November–December are the strongest months of the year, and flows in them are historically above average. But it is not something to write into a base case without caveats either.
An additional signal is the Bank of Thailand’s own assessment: on 28 October it wrote that foreign tourist arrivals are expected to decline because of higher oil prices. We cannot turn that into a forecast for the final figure, but two independent sources — the arithmetic and the regulator’s view — point the same way: reaching 33 million will take a strong November and December.
A methodology warning: the calculation assumes an even flow and relies on a rounded target. If TAT revises the target, the arithmetic changes. We do not forecast the year-end result; we show what pace would be required.
5. Bank of Thailand on 28 October: 1% and new forecasts
The meeting the last issue was waiting for has taken place. According to Nation Thailand, the Monetary Policy Committee kept the policy rate at 1.00%. The decision was unanimous among the members present — one committee member was absent. The committee judged accommodative monetary policy and targeted financial measures appropriate to support an uneven recovery.
The bank’s new forecasts against June’s (from issue 44):
| Indicator | June: 2026 | June: 2027 | October: 2026 | October: 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.1% |
| Headline inflation | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
| Core inflation | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
What the bank says. Growth is supported by exports and investment tied to the technology and AI cycle, but the gains are concentrated in a few industries; overall growth stays below potential. Private consumption is weak: high household debt, a fragile labour market, low purchasing power. Credit is growing through large businesses, while lending to small and medium enterprises is contracting in almost all sectors. Inflation risks: higher oil prices, El Niño and uncertainty around the Middle East war could push it above forecast.
What this means for a buyer. Foreigners in Phuket usually buy with their own funds: mortgages for non-residents are limited, as we wrote in our review of mortgages for foreigners. So the rate affects them indirectly — through the baht, demand from Thai buyers and overall sentiment. A 1% rate supports property demand among local buyers; weak consumption and tighter credit for small businesses hold it back. These are our reasoning, not a price forecast.
6. Baht and oil: two opposite claims
The exchange rate is the most underrated cost for a foreign buyer: catalogue prices are tied to the baht, and the dollar figures on cards are a conversion at the price-list date. Recent coverage contains two claims that look contradictory.
| Source | What it says about the baht | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Thailand, 28 Oct | The baht weakened against the dollar | markets are pricing tighter US policy; higher oil on Middle East concerns weighs on the currency |
| TAT, quoted by Nation Thailand | A “strong baht” weighs on neighbouring-market demand | refers to trips from neighbouring countries and recent months |
There is no real contradiction: the rate fluctuates, and the assessments were made on different dates for different currency pairs. For neighbouring Asian markets a trip can remain expensive even if the baht weakens against the dollar. The practical conclusion is the same for us: do not try to guess the rate — lock it in for the transaction. If your payment schedule is in baht (as in an off-plan instalment plan), currency risk grows with the term. How to structure the transfer properly so you avoid problems at the land office and on resale is covered in our article on the FET form.
Oil is a separate channel. The Bank of Thailand links it both to inflation (above forecast until early 2027) and to the expected fall in arrivals: costly flights hit the long-haul segment we looked at above. This is not yet visible in the week’s numbers — long-haul is growing. If fuel prices begin to affect fares, we will see it in the statistics of coming issues.
7. What TAT is doing for high season
TAT is betting on events. According to Nation Thailand’s piece on the 33 million target, the fourth quarter in Bangkok includes the Royal Barge Procession, Loy Krathong, Vijit Chao Phraya, the New Year countdown and the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings. In December come Tomorrowland Thailand in Chon Buri and Electric Daisy Carnival (EDC) Thailand in Phuket, plus international concerts. For the Indian market, still slightly down on last year, Diwali festivals are being held.
Two things matter for Phuket:
- EDC on the island in December is an event, not an occupancy forecast. It may lift short-stay demand on specific dates but does not change the overall seasonal picture; check its effect against actual occupancy, not the headline.
- Advance bookings from Europe and the Americas are strong, according to TAT. These are the agency’s words; we have no independent check. They coincide with the weekly rise in long-haul, but are not confirmation.
The visa-exemption scheme should also stay in mind: from 15 September 60 countries get up to 30 days instead of 60. For a rental model with guests staying 2–6 weeks it may go unnoticed; for those used to staying longer it is tangible.
8. What this means for rentals and yield
Linking the week’s numbers to the rental model.
- Long-haul has grown two weeks in a row. It is the key segment for high season in Layan and Bang Tao. But two weeks are not a season; check against real occupancy in rental seasonality.
- Total flow is 4.43% below last year. For the rental pool this means a conservative approach: do not build record occupancy into the model. The ~8–10% net per year benchmark (60% of the pool’s net profit to the owner, 40% to the management company) is a target of the developer’s programme, with a payback around 12 years — not a promise.
- The 1% rate and the exchange rate. They affect local demand and your currency conversion, but do not change the pool’s structure. How management programmes work — in our rental programme overview.
- Recalculating your own yield. How to compute net yield after CAM, sinking fund and taxes — in how to calculate ROI in Phuket; for a quick estimate use the yield calculator.
To compare projects: in Layan Verde entry is currently from $235,995 with completion in December 2028 and an instalment plan during construction; in Layan Green Park the finished phase 1 is resales only with full payment (studios from $142,602), while the developer sells phase 2 studios from $224,043. More in the comparison Layan Verde vs Layan Green Park. The area is Layan, with neighbouring Bang Tao.
9. Traps of the week
- Two weeks are not a trend. +10.55% and +12.03% in long-haul is a strong signal, but seasonal growth at the end of October is expected. The decisive comparison is with last year.
- National statistics are not Phuket. The ministry report counts entries into the country. It does not show flow into the island’s airport or the occupancy of your units.
- A drop in Chinese flow (−24.17%) is not a Phuket collapse. The report has no Phuket breakdown, so you cannot judge the share of Chinese guests on the island from this figure. The opposite conclusion, that China “does not matter”, is also wrong: it remains the country’s largest market by cumulative arrivals.
- Cumulative figures get revised. Differences between reports are our calculation and may diverge from the official weekly value.
- The “33M target” is a target, not a forecast. The required 119K a day is 1.66 times the current pace. If the result comes in lower, that is not a “property market failure” — but the target should not be a baseline either.
- A regulator’s view is not a fact. The Bank of Thailand expects fewer tourists because of oil, yet the week showed growth. A gap between expectation and data is normal until statistics accumulate.
- Baht payment plans. With a baht schedule, dollar returns depend on the rate on each payment date.
- Prices change. Check prices and availability on the transaction date: tokens in the text insert current catalogue values, but the contract fixes the price list on the reservation day.
10. Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
Mini-case (an illustration, not a real client). An investor is looking at Layan Verde but postpones the decision “until the picture on rates and arrivals is clear”. They read issues 44 and 45: flow −4.43%, the 33M target needs 119K a day, the rate stays at 1%, long-haul is growing. What follows for the decision?
- The project is due for completion in December 2028. 2026 arrivals are not the yield horizon; the 2029–2030 seasons will be shaped by supply, flights, fuel prices and the exchange rate, not October statistics.
- The payment scheme fixes the risk. A 200,000 THB reservation, then 35% and 5 payments of 13% every 6 months (or 50% and 5 payments of 10%). Delay changes the price list: per the catalogue, studio prices rose from $224,776 to $235,995 in recent months.
- Diversify rather than guess. Some investors combine a finished resale in Layan Green Park (pool income from the first season, full payment) with Layan Verde under construction (capital growth; the developer’s projection is not a promise). It is the same logic as in the phase 1 case and the off-plan vs ready review.
This week’s takeaway is short: the market is not breaking, but it is not accelerating. Arrivals trail by 4.43%, long-haul is reviving for a second week, the Bank of Thailand holds 1% and itself expects fewer tourists, and 33 million needs a pace not yet seen this year. For a buyer this is a reason to calculate conservatively, lock the exchange rate and not pay for expectations. The next issue follows the ministry’s new data for 25–31 October.
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This material is informational and is not investment or legal advice or a public offer. Tourism statistics are from Khaosod English of 27 October and Nation Thailand in 2026, the rate decision from Nation Thailand of 28 October; calculations are marked as ours. Yield figures are target benchmarks of the developer’s programme, not a promise.
