Week 46 brought two themes worth reading together. The first is statistics: Thailand’s cumulative foreign arrivals reached 25.46 million by 31 October, 4.59% below a year earlier, and the shortfall has now widened for four weeks in a row. The second is property itself: on 4 November Nation Thailand published a review saying properties worth THB 194.545 billion are awaiting buyers in Phuket in 2026, new project launches are up 44.8% on the previous half-year, and yet only three condominiums were completed. The same review again raises nominee structures, which authorities have been checking since May. And to reach 33 million guests for the year, the country needs about 124,000 a day, 1.6 times the latest weekly pace.
The format is unchanged: the week’s numbers, analysis, interpretation traps, a mini-case and a takeaway for buyers. The previous issue was week 45, where we counted arrivals to 24 October and the Bank of Thailand decision. External data are listed in the “Sources” block under the article. Where a figure is our own calculation from published data, we say so; forecasts are called forecasts. The hub for all digests is Thailand real estate news.
Contents
- Arrivals to 31 October: 25.46M and −4.59%
- The week of 25–31 October: long-haul keeps rising
- The five largest markets of the week
- The maths of the 33M target: now 124k a day
- A THB 194.5bn Phuket market: what is inside
- Concentration in Bang Tao and Layan
- Nominee structures: the 2026 timeline of checks
- What it means for rentals and yield
- Traps of the week
- Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
1. Arrivals to 31 October: 25.46M and −4.59%
According to Ministry of Tourism and Sports data reported by The Thaiger on 3 November, Thailand received 25,464,306 foreign tourists between 1 January and 31 October 2026. That is 4.59% fewer than in the same period of 2025. Revenue from foreign guests over the ten months was about THB 1.24 trillion.
Compared with the two previous issues:
| Indicator | To 17 Oct (wk 44) | To 24 Oct (wk 45) | To 31 Oct (wk 46) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals | 24,423,680 | 24,925,645 | 25,464,306 |
| Change vs 2025 | −4.12% | −4.43% | −4.59% |
| Revenue year to date | about THB 1.19tn | about THB 1.21tn | about THB 1.24tn |
First observation: the gap to last year has widened for the fourth week running, from −4.04% on 10 October to −4.59% now. The weekly step is 0.16 percentage points, half of last week’s 0.31: the deterioration is slowing, but the direction is unchanged. By our calculation on rounded data, about 26.69 million visits had been recorded by 31 October a year earlier, so the difference is around 1.22 million guests (about 1.16 million a week ago).
Second: in absolute terms the week was strong, 538,661 visits, the best of recent issues. But the same week last year was even stronger, so the gap still grew. To avoid confusing “better than last week” with “better than last year”, we keep these comparisons separate in the tables below.
What this means for an investor. Nationwide arrivals are the backdrop for Phuket’s rental market, not its direct metric: the island gets its share through the airport, charters and seasonality. We covered the difference in Phuket tourism statistics. National figures work as a sentiment indicator, not as an occupancy calculation for a specific unit.
2. The week of 25–31 October: long-haul keeps rising
During 25–31 October 538,661 foreign guests arrived, 36,696 (7.31%) more than the week before. That is about 76,952 visits a day. The week’s structure:
| Segment | Visits in the week | Change vs previous week |
|---|---|---|
| Long-haul | 227,153 | +13.60% |
| Short-haul | 311,508 | +3.14% |
| Total | 538,661 | +7.31% |
The key point: long-haul confirms the seasonal turn. A week earlier it stood at 199,954 visits, now 227,153; The Thaiger calls this the fifth consecutive weekly rise. In our previous issue we wrote about two consecutive weeks of growth; the discrepancy is that we counted the streak from a later starting point and the source from an earlier one. The conclusion does not change: this is the most important segment for Phuket. Europeans, Americans and Russians stay longer, book aparthotels and villas, and create the high season on the west coast.
Short-haul returned to growth (+3.14%) for the first time in several issues, after falling 2.24% a week earlier. One week is not a reversal: this segment is pressured by the revised visa-exemption regime (from 15 September 60 countries and up to 30 days instead of 93 countries and 60 days) and the strong baht. These are explanations given by TAT and the press; we cannot split the weekly dynamics by cause.
3. The five largest markets of the week
The structure of 25–31 October by largest markets, plus year-to-date cumulative figures:
| Market | Visits 25–31 Oct | Vs previous week | Cumulative since 1 Jan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaysia | 61,842 | about −1.4% (our calculation) | 3,226,484 |
| China | 51,479 | about +4.0% (our calculation) | 4,244,376 |
| Russia | 44,499 | +27.19% | 1,414,341 |
| India | 40,884 | −14.98% | 1,924,417 |
| United States | 21,261 | +5.42% | — |
| South Korea | — | — | 932,066 |
The table is built from a single report: weekly data cover the week’s top five markets (which include the US), cumulative data the year’s top five (which include South Korea), hence a few dashes. Changes for Malaysia and China are our own, computed from the previous week’s figures (62,724 and 49,494 visits).
What stands out. Malaysia remains the first market of the week and China the first by cumulative numbers (about 4.24 million, roughly 16.7% of the flow). Russia added 27.19%, a second strong week in a row, and has accumulated 1.41 million visits, about 5.5% of the total. India, conversely, fell 14.98% after rising 18.09% a week earlier: festival spikes fade quickly. For Phuket, where a large share of buyers and renters come from Russia, the CIS, Europe and India, these markets determine high-season occupancy. The report has no breakdown of guests to Phuket itself.
4. The maths of the 33M target: now 124k a day
TAT’s governor cited a target of about 33 million foreign guests in 2026; the minimum goal is to repeat the 32.97 million received in 2025 (Nation Thailand, quoted in earlier issues). Recalculating from the latest point:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Cumulative arrivals to 31 October | 25,464,306 |
| TAT target | about 33,000,000 |
| Still to gain | about 7,536,000 |
| Days from 1 November to 31 December | 61 |
| Required average flow | about 124k a day |
| Average flow 1 Jan–31 Oct (304 days) | about 84k a day |
| Flow in the latest week | about 77k a day |
A week ago the required pace was about 119k a day; now it is about 124k, because even the best week (77k a day) stayed far from the required level. The required average is about 47% above the year’s average and 1.6 times the latest week. This is not a verdict: November and December are the strongest months of the year. But it cannot yet be treated as a base case.
Method: the calculation assumes an even flow and a rounded target. If TAT revises the target, the arithmetic changes. We do not forecast the year’s total; we show what pace would be required.
5. A THB 194.5bn Phuket market: what is inside
On 4 November Nation Thailand published “Phuket’s property boom brings pressure on local communities” (based on Post Today reporting); The Star republished it on 6 November. It is the freshest summary of the island, and it is full of numbers.
| Indicator | Value | Attribution |
|---|---|---|
| Value of properties awaiting buyers in 2026 | THB 194.545bn | Nation Thailand; The Star converts to ~US$5.84bn |
| Rank among markets | second after Bangkok and surrounding provinces | Nation Thailand |
| Average price of available property | THB 12.921m | AREA (Agency for Real Estate Affairs) |
| Growth in new condo launches, H1 2026 vs previous half | +44.8% | Nation Thailand |
| Foreign share of buyers, H1 2026 | 67% | CBRE data as cited by Nation Thailand |
| Condos completed in H1 | 3 projects, 1,196 units | president of the Phuket Real Estate Association |
| Completed units vs H2 2025 | −56.8% | same |
How to read it. First, supply is growing faster than it is delivered: launches up 44.8% against three completed projects means a significant volume of new units will reach the market in a year or two, and competition, according to the review, is fiercest on the west coast: Bang Tao, Cherng Talay, Layan, Kamala. Second, the association’s president Maetapong Upatising notes that the market began losing momentum in 2025 after a very strong 2024: sales slowed while supply kept growing. Third, some condominiums in Patong and Cherng Talay operate as hotel room stock and compete with hotels for guests.
One more figure from the review: according to Post Today, Phuket and Pattaya offer rental returns of roughly 8–10% a year on purchase price. It is a market estimate from a newspaper report, and we are not familiar with its methodology. Do not confuse it with the developer rental pool’s target, which is calculated as the owner’s net yield after the 60/40 profit split (more in section 8).
6. Concentration in Bang Tao and Layan
The figures most interesting for our audience are about the geography of supply. According to the market analysis quoted in the article:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Bang Tao share of units on the market | 52.3% |
| Bang Tao share of their combined value | 64.2% |
| “Premium” projects on the island | 60 |
| Of which in Bang Tao | 31 (including 8 in Layan) |
| Bang Tao share of “Lux” and “Lux+” units | 58.6% |
The takeaway is simple: Bang Tao, which administratively includes Layan, is not just one district but the centre of gravity of the premium market. More than half of supply and almost two thirds of its value sit in one zone. For a buyer that is an advantage (a liquid secondary market, clear price benchmarks, infrastructure) and a drawback (heavy competition at resale and in rentals, dependence on a single cluster). How the parts of the zone differ is covered in Layan vs Bang Tao and the Bang Tao beach guide; the area pages are Layan and Bang Tao.
The practical question: what sets a project apart inside such a concentration? Look past the headline to distance to the beach, payment structure, handover date and the developer’s willingness to show actual rental reports. We derive all of these from open price lists, not advertising.
7. Nominee structures: the 2026 timeline of checks
The Nation Thailand review recalls that 2026 has been a year of heightened attention to nominee structures, where Thai shareholders or title holders nominally hold property while acting for a foreigner. The timeline from the text:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | The prime minister visits Bang Tao beach in Cherng Talay (Thalang district) over encroachment on public land; says nominee arrangements and legal loopholes must not threaten the public interest |
| 8 July 2026 | The DSI (Department of Special Investigation), under a Criminal Court warrant, arrests a foreign suspect in a case involving a luxury villa rental business in Phuket |
| 11 July 2026 | A deputy interior minister inspects hotels and other businesses after complaints about suspected nominee ownership and construction permits |
These are not isolated episodes: the theme has run since the summer. We covered the progress of the checks in the nominee crackdown article. The same review notes two alternatives developers talk about: the Long-Term Resident (LTR) visa for longer stays and registered property-use rights, sap ing sit, which are gaining interest among Chinese buyers of pool villas. We do not assess these options in a digest; for a villa the ownership structure must be reviewed case by case; see villa ownership through a Thai company.
For a foreign buyer the main point is that the ownership structure must withstand scrutiny. A condominium within the foreign quota (up to 49% of the project’s area) is registered directly to the buyer and needs no nominee structure. The lawfulness of any arrangement depends on the specific deal, so have a lawyer check it.
8. What it means for rentals and yield
Linking the week’s numbers to the rental model.
- Long-haul is rising. This is the key segment for the high season in Layan and Bang Tao. But a seasonal rise in late October is expected; check against real occupancy in rental seasonality.
- Total arrivals are 4.59% below last year while supply grows 44.8%. For the rental pool this calls for conservative assumptions: do not assume record occupancy and remember that new units compete for the same guests. The developer programme’s target is ~8–10% net per year (60% of the pool’s net profit to the owner, 40% to the management company), with payback of around 12 years; it is a target, not a promise.
- The newspaper’s “8–10% of purchase price” and net yield are different quantities. Gross yield on purchase price can be compared with net yield after fees, CAM, sinking fund and taxes only on a single methodology. How to calculate it is in how to calculate ROI in Phuket; for a quick estimate use the yield calculator.
- Ownership structure. For a foreigner, the checks on nominee structures are an argument for transparent registration: a contract with the developer at its price list and registration within the foreign quota.
To compare projects: in Layan Verde entry is currently from $235,995 with handover in December 2028 and an instalment plan for the construction period; in Layan Green Park the completed phase 1 is resales only with full payment (studios from $142,602), while the developer sells phase 2 studios from $224,043. More in Layan Verde vs Layan Green Park.
9. Traps of the week
- A better week than the last is not a better week than last year. +7.31% week on week against −4.59% cumulatively vs 2025: compare with the same period a year earlier.
- National statistics are not Phuket. The ministry report counts entries into the country. It does not show flows into the island’s airport or your unit’s occupancy.
- One cluster, one risk. If 52.3% of units and 64.2% of value are concentrated in Bang Tao, a repricing of that area affects both your unit and its rental comparables.
- Launches are not completions. +44.8% in launches does not mean that many units are built. But they set future competition, so the developer’s track record and schedule matter more than a marketing render.
- Newspaper yield is neither a guarantee nor your net. The “8–10%” figure is a market estimate with an undisclosed methodology; build your own model.
- Nominee structures look cheap until they are checked. If you are offered a villa registered “to a Thai friend” or a company with formal shareholders, this is exactly the case authorities are checking in 2026. See a lawyer before payment, not after.
- “The 33M target” is a target, not a forecast. The required 124k a day is well above the current pace.
- The price list changes. Check prices and availability at the date of the deal: the tokens in the text insert current catalogue values, but the contract fixes the price list at the date of reservation.
10. Mini-case and takeaway for Layan and the rental pool
Mini-case (illustration, not a real client). An investor hears news about a Phuket “boom” and, at the same time, about a “slowdown” and nominee checks, and postpones the decision “until things are clear”. They read the issues of weeks 45 and 46: arrivals −4.59%, supply rising, Bang Tao holding over half of premium units. What follows?
- The project is scheduled for handover in December 2028. 2026 arrivals are not the yield horizon; the 2029–2030 seasons will depend on supply, flights, fuel prices and the exchange rate. But rising supply is exactly why distance to the beach and management quality deserve closer attention.
- The ownership structure is simpler than it seems. Buying through a contract directly with the developer at its price list and registering within the foreign quota needs no nominee structures, which are what is being checked. We recommend having a lawyer review the contract in any case.
- Diversify rather than guess. Some investors combine a completed resale in Layan Green Park (pool income from the first season, full payment) with Layan Verde under construction (capital growth; the developer’s forecast is not a promise). It is the same logic as in the phase 1 case and the off-plan vs ready analysis.
This week’s takeaway: the market is large and concentrated, supply is abundant, and buyers and tourists are still fewer than a year ago. Arrivals trail by 4.59%, long-haul is rising, Russia is strong, and 33 million needs a pace not seen this year. For a buyer that is a reason to calculate conservatively, choose transparent registration and not pay for expectations. The next issue follows the ministry’s new data for 1–7 November.
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This material is for information only and is not investment or legal advice or a public offer. Tourism statistics are based on The Thaiger’s report of 3 November; property market data on Nation Thailand (4 November) and The Star (6 November 2026); calculations are marked as ours. Yield figures are target benchmarks of the developer’s programme, not a promise.
