At year-end, markets are usually summed up with verdicts and promises. We will try something different: separate what has been measured (data from AREA, REIC, the Bank of Thailand and the tourism ministry) from what remains a forecast (our scenarios for 2027). Phuket looks paradoxical in 2026: the island has 90,597 residential units worth THB 705bn on the books, foreigners account for over 40% of condominium deals, and yet Thailand’s overall tourist arrivals trail last year. Both pictures are real. Below: what actually happened, how to read it, three scenarios for 2027, and a list of indicators that will tell you in six months which scenario is playing out. This article does not duplicate the Phuket property market 2026 overview: that is the market map, this is the year’s outcome and a look ahead.
Contents
- What we know for sure: the market in numbers at end-2026
- Supply: 13,779 new units and 19.2 months of stock
- Demand: who is buying and what arrivals say
- Prices: land, new-build and resale are three different markets
- Money and rules: 1% rate, 0.01% fee, nominees, visas
- Three scenarios for 2027
- Indicators: what to track every month
- Pitfalls: how not to be misled by year-end headlines
- Mini-case: reading the market through Layan Verde and Layan Green Park
- Conclusion and next step
1. What we know for sure: the market in numbers at end-2026
The freshest full snapshot is the study by the Thai Real Estate Research and Valuation Center at AREA, published on 12 September 2026 (we analysed it in a separate article on the THB 705bn market). It is not a developer estimate or a brokerage deck but a survey of the island’s projects.
| Indicator (AREA, September 2026) | Value |
|---|---|
| Projects | 806 |
| Units | 90,597 |
| Total value | THB 705.055bn |
| Sold | 76,582 units (85%) |
| Average unit price | THB 12.812m |
| Average absorption rate | 5.2% a month |
| Estimated sell-out time for remaining stock | 19.2 months |
The second layer is structure. The resort segment (condo-hotels and leisure villas) accounts for about 52% of units but roughly 80% of market value. So when we say “the Phuket market”, we most often mean resort property rather than housing for permanent residents: it has a different buyer, different liquidity and a different link to tourism.
The third layer is buyers. According to REIC, foreigners’ share of condominium transactions in Phuket exceeded 40% in 2025 — almost double Bangkok’s 26%. China fell 38.8% year on year (to 906 units) but remains the largest group; interest is growing from Russia, Taiwan, India, the UK, Europe and the Middle East. For market resilience this is rather a plus: demand spread across a dozen nationalities depends less on the news in any one country.
2. Supply: 13,779 new units and 19.2 months of stock
The main tension in the 2026 market is not demand but supply. According to AREA, 13,779 new units worth THB 176.538bn reached the market in 2026, averaging about THB 10m per unit. That looks closer to record 2024 (14,718 units in 56 projects) than to Colliers Thailand’s forecast for 2026 (6,000–8,000 units). The gap comes from methodology: AREA counts all residential categories, including villas and townhouses, whereas Colliers forecast condominiums only. It is an important caveat: figures from different reports cannot be compared head-on.
Nation Thailand, citing AREA in a 4 November piece, adds two facts: Phuket has THB 194.545bn of property waiting for buyers (average price of an available unit THB 12.921m), and new condominium launches in the first half rose 44.8% over the previous half-year, while only three projects with 1,196 units were completed in that half-year. In other words, launches accelerated but completions did not: a large part of the new supply is still under construction and will reach the rental and resale market in 2027–2029.
| Property type | Absorption rate (AREA) |
|---|---|
| Residential condominiums | 8.1% a month |
| Resort property (condo-hotels, villas) | 4.9% a month |
| Other housing (townhouses, houses) | about 3% a month |
How to read “19.2 months”: of 90,597 units, 14,015 are unsold; at 5.2% a month they clear in about a year and a half. This is not a glut signal — for a market that is constantly replenished it is a normal horizon. The value of the metric is in its direction: if in six months it rises to 24–30 months at the same launch pace, demand is cooling; if it shortens, ready supply is thinning and prices in the best projects get support. It is one of the key indicators for 2027 (see section 7).
3. Demand: who is buying and what arrivals say
Rental demand rests on tourist flows, and here 2026 is more complicated than record-breaking headlines suggest. According to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports (as reported by The Thaiger on 3 November), Thailand received 25,464,306 foreign tourists from 1 January to 31 October — 4.59% fewer than a year earlier; revenue for the ten months was about THB 1.24 trillion. TAT cites a benchmark of around 33m for the year (at minimum, repeating 2025’s 32.97m). By our calculation on published data, from 25.46m about 7.54m visits remain over 61 days — roughly 124k a day against about 84k on average since the start of the year. That is arithmetic, not a forecast, but it shows that hitting the target will be hard.
The mix of the flow is shifting. The week of 25–31 October recorded 538,661 visits (+7.31% on the previous week); long-haul rose 13.60% and Russia 27.19%. In Phuket, arrivals over seven months of 2026 are about 1.5% below last year, but Russia remains the number-one market. Week-by-week detail is in the week 46 digest.
Since 15 September the visa-free stay has been cut to 30 days for 93 countries (what changed). For a short-stay tourist this is not critical, but for people who spend long periods on the island long-term visas matter more — an additional demand factor for ready homes with a clear owner status.
What it means for an investor. Purchase demand remains steady thanks to foreigners, but rental demand depends on a flow that is not growing in 2026. A conservative yield model should therefore assume average, not record, occupancy: how to calculate it is in the ROI guide and the villa rental yield analysis. Our benchmark under the developer programme is ~8–10% net a year (60% of the pool’s net profit to the owner, 40% to the management company) with payback of around 12 years; it is a target, not a guarantee, and in the pitfalls section we explain why it depends on the pool.
4. Prices: land, new-build and resale are three different markets
The phrase “prices went up” almost always hides three different processes. Let us separate them.
| Segment | What is known | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Land and beachfront | Almost no free plots by the water remain on the west coast; coastal properties in Bang Tao, Kamala and Nai Harn are up more than 20% on 2023 levels | The main long-term price driver |
| New-build (off-plan) | Price steps up from launch to handover; a catalogue example — Layan Verde studios rose from $224,776 to $235,995 (about 5%) in recent months | Gains go to early buyers; timing and terms are set by the developer |
| Resale of ready units | Price depends on yield, condition and liquidity of the specific lot; few lots | The “noisiest” segment: averages say little |
According to Knight Frank, quoted by the Bangkok Post on 2 July 2026, villas in the Bang Tao – Cherng Talay – Layan – Kamala corridor are rising 12–18% a year and condominiums 7–10% (analysis). Villa sales grew 12.9% in 2025 and outpaced condos. These are a consultant’s estimates, not guarantees; but keep the growth gap between “land under a villa” and “a floor in a building” in mind: condo supply can be increased with extra storeys, villa supply cannot.
In the premium Bang Tao segment, price barely moved over the quarter (around THB 195,000 per m², −0.6%) while available inventory grew 13.4%, whereas in luxury, with available supply down 10.4%, price rose 1.6%. It illustrates the main rule: price responds not to “the market” but to scarcity in a specific segment. A detailed look at the drivers is in what moves Phuket prices.
A practical price check you can do yourself: compare the developer’s price list with the trend in our price index and with open price lists of other projects in the same area. We do not promise growth; we show how prices actually changed.
5. Money and rules: 1% rate, 0.01% fee, nominees, visas
Four backdrops that affect the market more than they appear to.
The rate. The Bank of Thailand held its policy rate at 1.00% on 28 October 2026 (Nation Thailand). A low rate supports Thai buyers’ mortgage demand and lowers developers’ cost of funds; for a foreigner it usually matters more through the baht exchange rate — see the USD/THB rate. If the rate turns up, it would support the cooling scenario.
Transfer fee. On 30 June 2026 the cabinet extended until 30 June 2027 the reduced fee for registering transfers and mortgages — 0.01% instead of the standard 2% and 1% (details). This cuts transaction costs, but the relief ends in mid-2027: if it is not renewed, some buyers will want to close before the date.
The 49% quota and nominees. The 49% cap on foreign ownership of building area in condominiums remains in force; changes are discussed but no bill has been tabled (how to check the quota). In parallel, authorities are tightening action against nominee structures: the fifth phase of the police operation, raids and inspections of beaches and rental villas are described in our overview. Takeaway: “through a nominee shareholder” schemes are the least predictable risk of 2027; the lawful route is a structure that withstands inspection.
Visas. The shortened visa-free stay (30 days from 15 September) pushes long-term residents toward the DTV, LTR and other formats; compare them on terms, not advertising — DTV step by step, LTR.
This material is for information only and is not legal or tax advice; consult a Thai lawyer before any transaction.
6. Three scenarios for 2027
Below are our working scenarios, not a numerical forecast. We deliberately attach no probabilities or growth percentages: there is no reliable data for that. Each scenario is tied to indicators you can verify.
| Base: “selective growth” | Optimistic: “beachfront scarcity” | Cautious: “glut and pause” | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supply | Launches continue, some projects slip; stock sell-out about 19–24 months | Handovers slow, sell-out period shortens | Launches exceed absorption, sell-out period lengthens |
| Arrivals | Around 2025–2026 levels | Recovery, 2026/27 high season stronger than last | Shortfall persists, weak high season |
| Prices | Rise near the beach and in branded projects, flat in the mass segment | Beachfront growth continues, resales get pricier | Developer discounts and bonuses, resales stay listed longer |
| Rental | Average occupancy, yield within benchmark | Above expectations | Below benchmark, supply weighs |
| Who benefits | Long-horizon buyers with a verified property | Early buyers near the first line | Buyers with cash and time to negotiate |
The base scenario is the most plausible because it matches what we see in 2026: selectivity. The optimistic one requires a recovery in arrivals; the cautious one needs a high rate, a weak season and a wave of handovers all at once. No scenario cancels the main point: different projects follow different trajectories. The market “on average” says little about a specific lot.
How to pick a scenario for yourself: if you need cash flow from the first season, look at ready units; if you aim for capital growth over the construction horizon, look at off-plan; this dilemma is covered in off-plan or ready and resale vs new-build.
7. Indicators: what to track every month
We are not asking you to believe forecasts — we suggest you verify. All indicators are open.
- Arrivals. Weekly and monthly data from the tourism ministry and TAT; Russia’s share and the long-haul share. We publish a summary in our weekly digests.
- Sell-out period (AREA). Currently 19.2 months. A rise is a warning, a fall confirms scarcity.
- Bank of Thailand rate. Currently 1.00%. Follow the monetary policy committee meetings.
- Developers’ open price lists and our price index. A change in a price list is the most honest indicator of demand for a specific project. Discounts and “bonuses” often mean a slowdown.
- Regulation. The reduced fee deadline (30 June 2027), the 49% quota, nominee schemes, the visa regime.
Handover data is also useful: how many launched projects are actually delivered on time. Only three completed projects with 1,196 units in the first half of 2026 against a 44.8% rise in launches is a reason to ask the developer for the schedule and the legal structure of the property rather than trust the brochure (developer red flags).
8. Pitfalls: how not to be misled by year-end headlines
- Average price ≠ your price. THB 12.812m is an island-wide average from townhouses at THB 2–3m to villas at tens of millions. For a decision you need the price per m² in your area and class.
- Different methodologies. AREA, Colliers and REIC count different categories. Comparing 13,779 with 6,000–8,000 is incorrect without caveats.
- Forecast instead of fact. “8–10% a year” is an industry benchmark, not a result. If a seller calls a forecast “yield”, ask for reports from past periods.
- Yield without costs. CAM fees, sinking fund, utilities, rental tax and the manager’s fee reduce the flow; calculate net.
- National arrivals vs your occupancy. The national flow is not the occupancy of a specific unit; area, season and manager matter.
- Fear and greed. Neither “bubble” nor “last chance” replaces numbers. The market is selective: some projects have queues, others have discounts.
- Legal structure. Nominee schemes and unregistered rights are a risk invisible in the price; check the chanote title and run due diligence.
9. Mini-case: reading the market through Layan Verde and Layan Green Park
Take two projects by one developer, VillaCarte Group — one developer among many in the catalogue, but it shows different market stages well. The data come from catalogue cards.
Layan Green Park, phase 1. All 248 units were sold out by the developer before handover; the complex has operated since 2024 and only resales are available. On the 21.07.2026 price list a studio from 30 m² was priced from THB 4,800,000 ($142,602), full payment. This is a “ready asset with cash flow”, with the price formed after growth (about 100% from the start of sales, per the developer) — see the case study. Current entry is phase 2: studios $224,043 (7,424,784 THB), handover in 2026.
Layan Verde. A project under construction about 700 m from Layan beach, 774 residences, handover in December 2028, studios $235,995 (7,833,125 THB), instalment plans of 35% or 50% with payments every six months. The studio price rose from $224,776 to $235,995 in recent months — stepwise off-plan growth in action.
How to read it through the scenarios: in the base case, a ready LGP resale gives a predictable model (benchmark ~8–10% net through the rental pool at target parameters), while Layan Verde is a bet on capital growth during construction (per the developer’s forecast). In the cautious case, the former is easier to sell and let, the latter requires patience until 2028. We do not claim either is “better”: the projects solve different tasks, and the catalogue includes other developers on the island — compare using open price lists. Both areas — Layan and Bang Tao — are zones of scarce waterfront land, as discussed in section 4.
10. Conclusion and next step
The result of 2026 in one sentence: the Phuket market is large, mature and selective. Supply is growing, tourist arrivals set no records, the rate is low, and ownership rules are tightening on nominee structures. For 2027 we have three scenarios, and the base one is “selective growth”: projects near the beach with a clear developer, an open price list and a legally clean structure win.
What to do in the coming weeks:
- Define the goal: cash flow, capital growth or living on the island — the scenario depends on it.
- Compare the price in the project you like with the price index and the open price list.
- Recalculate yield with owner costs; see the calculator and method.
- Check the legal structure and the handover schedule.
- Discuss options across all developers on the island: the purchase contract is signed directly with the developer at its price list, while selection and support are handled by the agency — a market commission, terms discussed at a meeting.
You can study the projects on the Layan Verde and Layan Green Park pages, and get an independent shortlist across all of Phuket from Layan Real Estate. Write to us and we will come back with a shortlist, numbers for your criteria and an honest comparison of options.
