Every conversation about renting in Phuket eventually arrives at the same question: “What is the occupancy there?” Sellers quote one attractive percentage, aggregators quote another, island statistics a third, and each of them is accurate on its own. The problem is that they are figures about different things: all hotels on the island, the luxury segment, a single booking platform, a peak month. The buyer wants to know just one thing: how many nights a year their unit will be occupied and how much money that brings. Below we go through which 2026 benchmarks actually exist, how to read them and how to build an honest model from them, with no invented percentages.
Contents
- What people actually mean by “occupancy”
- 2026 benchmarks: what has been published
- Why island occupancy is not your unit’s occupancy
- Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR: count money, not percentages
- Seasonal profile: where in the year occupancy is earned
- Areas: what can and cannot be said
- Pitfalls: how occupancy gets “drawn”
- Mini case: one unit, three scenarios
- What to ask the seller and the management company
- Conclusion and next step
1. What people actually mean by “occupancy”
Occupancy rate is the share of nights sold out of nights available. It sounds simple, but the formula has three hidden variables, and that is where the discrepancies between sources hide:
- What counts as “available”. Hotels count from all rooms in operation. A unit owner in a pool counts from the nights the unit was on sale: owner-use days, renovation and blocked dates may or may not be removed from the denominator.
- Which period. A cumulative January–July figure includes the peak of the high season and the start of the low one. A full-year figure also includes October. A “peak month” figure says nothing about the year.
- Which sample. All hotels on the island, hotels of a given class, or only those that report statistics. For condo-hotels and apartments rented independently there is no official summary at all.
The practical rule that follows: any occupancy figure without a stated period and sample is not data, it is advertising. The first thing to do with a percentage from a presentation is to ask two questions: “for which months?” and “across which set of properties?”.
2. 2026 benchmarks: what has been published
Below is what has actually been published by official and industry sources for 2026. We do not quote any other figures here.
| Source | Period | Sample | Occupancy | Change y/y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAT (Phuket office), data of 27 Aug 2026 | January–July 2026 | island hotels overall | 75.56% | −1.74% |
| Bangkok Post (TAT), half-year data | January–June 2026 | island hotels overall | 81.85% | n/a |
| Cushman & Wakefield Thailand | 1H 2026 | luxury and upscale hotels | 80.0% | from 84.1% in 1H 2025 |
Further figures from the same C&W study for the luxury and upscale segment in the first half of 2026: average daily rate (ADR) THB 6,820 (−4.0% y/y), RevPAR THB 5,456 (−8.7% y/y), 6.04 million hotel guests (−2.72%), supply of 49,380 rooms. The consultant also notes that roughly 3,440 rooms are under construction for 2026–2028, about +7% to supply; these are the consultant’s forward-looking data as of publication, not a guaranteed picture.
How to read this:
- The cumulative figure falling from 81.85% (half year) to 75.56% (seven months) is not a “July collapse”. These are different cumulative periods, and the drop shows how the summer low season pulls the average down. More on the TAT report itself in our breakdown of January–July arrivals.
- The luxury segment has higher occupancy, but a sharper fall in money terms. ADR and occupancy fell together, so RevPAR at −8.7% is more noticeable than the 4.1 percentage-point fall in occupancy.
- All three figures are about hotels, not about apartments in pools or villas. That is the main limitation, and the next section deals with it.
3. Why island occupancy is not your unit’s occupancy
Average island occupancy is an average across very different properties: from budget guesthouses in Patong to five-star resorts on the west coast. Your unit differs from that average on at least five parameters:
| Factor | How it affects unit occupancy |
|---|---|
| Area | A tourist hub gives dense short-stay demand, a quiet beach gives longer stays and family demand. See the Phuket districts map |
| Format | A condo-hotel with reception and service competes with hotels; an apartment without service competes with long-term rentals and Airbnb |
| Size | Studios and one-bedrooms capture couples and solo travellers; larger units wait for a family and receive fewer enquiries |
| Management | Dynamic pricing, channel management and enquiries answered within minutes create a gap you cannot see in an island average |
| Sales rules | The licence for short-term letting and the terms of the rental contract determine who you can rent to in the first place |
So the island average works as context, telling us what state the market is in, but not as a forecast for a particular lot. If the island drops by 1–2 percentage points, that does not mean your pool will drop by the same amount: it may do worse or better depending on its guest mix. We described who makes up that mix in Who Is Your Tenant in Phuket.
4. Occupancy, ADR and RevPAR: count money, not percentages
One of the most common ways to mislead a buyer is to show occupancy separately from the rate. The right set of metrics has three parts:
- Occupancy — the share of nights sold.
- ADR — the average rate per night sold.
- RevPAR — revenue per available room: occupancy × ADR. It is the one that is comparable across properties.
An example using C&W figures for luxury and upscale hotels: 80.0% × THB 6,820 ≈ THB 5,456, which is exactly the reported RevPAR, so the formula checks out. A year earlier, 84.1% and a RevPAR of THB 5,975 imply an ADR of around THB 7,100, i.e. the rate fell, and the consultant itself reports −4.0%. The conclusion: a hotel can “lose” four percentage points of occupancy and another 4% of rate, and the net revenue drop is close to 9%.
For a unit owner the next step is to move from revenue to net income:
- Unit revenue = nights on sale × occupancy × ADR.
- Minus channel commissions and the management company share. In VillaCarte Group projects, the pool owner receives 60% of net profit and the management company 40%.
- Minus owner costs: CAM fee, sinking fund, utilities, insurance — see the full list by line item.
- Minus tax on rental income.
Only after step four do you get a number comparable to the ~8–10% net per year pool target. The reverse calculation, from the price of a unit to what you actually put in your pocket, is in our article on calculating ROI. You can run your own scenario in the calculator.
5. Seasonal profile: where in the year occupancy is earned
Phuket’s calendar is simple, but the distribution of money within it is not. The high season traditionally falls in the dry months from about November to March–April, the low season in May–October, when the south-west monsoon is active over the Andaman Sea. The TAT data illustrates this: cumulative occupancy for six months is higher than for seven because July added a weak month to the calculation.
What follows for the model:
| Period | What happens to demand | How to model it |
|---|---|---|
| November–March | Peak: warm, dry, long stays by winter visitors | High base occupancy, maximum ADR — the main contribution to the annual result |
| April | Transition: heat, holiday peak mid-month, then a drop | Be careful: do not extrapolate to the whole month |
| May–October | Rain with breaks, more long-stay guests and remote workers | Lower rates, assume occupancy conservatively, costs stay the same |
| September–October | The quietest stretch | A good time for renovation and owner stays — more in our rainy season breakdown |
The detailed mechanics of seasons, including smoothing through a mix of short- and long-stay guests, are in Phuket Rental Seasons. One conclusion matters here: annual occupancy is a weighted average of two very different halves of the year, and it should be checked month by month, not as a single number. If a seller shows “90% occupancy” without a calendar, ask which month.
6. Areas: what can and cannot be said
Buyers like to compare areas by occupancy. To be honest: we have not seen published, mutually comparable occupancy benchmarks by Phuket area for apartments in the public domain, and if someone quotes exact percentages for “Layan versus Patong”, ask for the source. What can be said qualitatively:
- Patong and tourist hubs. The highest density of hotels and venues, a dense short-stay flow, but also the highest competition. Details in the Patong overview.
- Bang Tao and Layan in the north-west. Quiet beaches, with Laguna, golf and international schools nearby. They mix holidaymakers, winter visitors and families, which smooths out the dips. A comparison of the two areas is in Layan vs Bang Tao; area pages: Layan and Bang Tao.
- South: Rawai and Nai Harn. Winter visitors and longer stays, a lower ticket and steadier occupancy — see the guide to the south.
These characteristics describe a type of demand, not a percentage. The type of demand matters: it determines what your booking calendar will look like. But turning it into a number takes actual pool data, not an area-wide generalisation.
7. Pitfalls: how occupancy gets “drawn”
- A peak month instead of a year. “January occupancy is 95%” is true and says nothing about June.
- Occupancy without ADR. High occupancy is achieved with discounts. Ask for the average rate and RevPAR.
- A sample of the best. “Average occupancy of our properties” may be calculated only over units that have been in the programme a long time and are well located.
- The denominator. If blocked nights (renovation, owner use) are subtracted from available nights, the percentage rises without a single extra booking.
- Included “owner bookings”. Nights spent by the owner or their acquaintances sometimes end up in the numerator.
- A hotel figure instead of a pool figure. Island hotel occupancy from TAT statistics is not evidence of occupancy of your lots.
- Gross revenue instead of net. Before you reach take-home, the management company share, commissions, CAM fee and taxes still have to come out.
- The past as a guarantee. Consultants themselves note that around 3,440 rooms are under construction and supply is growing; last year’s occupancy does not guarantee next year’s.
If even one of these pitfalls appears in a presentation, it is a reason to request the underlying data, not to abandon the idea: often a rounded number hides a perfectly good result that was simply calculated in a way that is awkward to compare.
8. Mini case: one unit, three scenarios
A hypothetical example not tied to a specific lot; the figures are illustrative, not an offer. Suppose a studio in a pool is on sale 330 nights a year (the rest are owner days and technical blocks) at an average rate of THB 4,000.
| Scenario | Occupancy of nights on sale | Nights occupied | Gross revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negative | 55% | ≈ 182 | ≈ THB 726,000 |
| Base | 65% | ≈ 215 | ≈ THB 858,000 |
| Positive | 75% | ≈ 248 | ≈ THB 990,000 |
From gross revenue you then subtract channel commissions, the management company share, owner costs and taxes. In the negative scenario, fixed costs (CAM fee, sinking fund, insurance) do not shrink, so net result falls faster than revenue: a 15% drop in revenue can mean a 25–30% drop in net income. This is why a careful investor takes the negative scenario as the base and asks whether it is enough not to regret the purchase; the positive one is a bonus.
Note that none of the percentages above is “project statistics”. It is a template. As soon as you have actual pool data, you replace the three rows with real ones, and the model turns from an illustration into a working tool.
9. What to ask the seller and the management company
A checklist of questions that turns a conversation about occupancy into one you can verify:
- Monthly occupancy and ADR of the operating pool for at least 12 months, not “on average”.
- How the denominator is defined: whether blocked and owner nights are counted.
- The composition of the sample: all units of the pool or only selected ones.
- Channel structure: direct bookings, OTAs, corporate clients — and the commission of each channel.
- Profit distribution: in VillaCarte Group projects it is 60% of the pool net profit to the owner and 40% to the management company; fix how “net” is calculated in the contract.
- A calendar of owner costs that run regardless of occupancy.
- The operator’s right to change rates and pool rules — in our review of rental programmes we showed where this is written.
- For long-term letting, real rents and the vacancy gap between tenants: long-term rental guide and a comparison of short- and long-term letting.
If you are interested in the projects we represent: Layan Verde (entry from $235,995, handover in December 2028) is still under construction, so it has no actual occupancy by definition; it is a target model with a ~8–10% net guideline for the owner. The operating phase 1 of Layan Green Park (resales from $142,602) is the only group project where actual pool statistics can be looked at; we send those figures on request rather than publishing them in overview articles. Phase 2 (from $224,043) is due in 2026. More on the Layan Verde and Layan Green Park pages.
10. Conclusion and next step
The published 2026 benchmarks say one thing honestly: the Phuket hotel market softened slightly in the first half of the year — island occupancy of 75.56% for January–July per TAT, 80.0% in the luxury segment versus 84.1% per C&W, with RevPAR falling more than occupancy. For an investor this is neither a reason to panic nor a reason to ignore the data, but a basis for three habits: look at occupancy together with the rate, model month by month and in three scenarios, and demand actual pool statistics from the seller rather than the island average.
We will help you build such a model for your budget: we will send the available data on the group’s operating projects, explain how it is calculated and compare the options. The agency terms are a “market commission, terms discussed at a meeting”. Leave a request or start with the calculator and the agency page.
This material is for information only and is not investment or legal advice. TAT, Cushman & Wakefield Thailand and Bangkok Post data are quoted as of their publication dates; yield figures are programme management targets, not a guarantee. The figures in the mini case are illustrative.
